2019 NBA Offseason Grades and Season Preview-Northwest Division

Welcome to part 4 of my 2019-2020 NBA season preview! If you missed part 3 where I broke down the Southeast division (Hawks, Magic, Heat, Hornets, Wizards), stop, and check it out!

Today, my first western conference post features the Northwest division with 3 teams with legitimate chances to make it out of the west, 1 team with a key decision to make, and the other stuck in NBA purgatory. One last caveat, the difference in teams 1-6 in the west are razor thin. If I rank a team higher or lower than another, this doesn’t mean there’s a big difference between them.

*Things to note before reading* 1. Quick salary cap facts: The NBA salary cap is $109.14 million. The max salary before a team must pay the luxury tax is $132.627 million; 2. For my "highest value" or "worst value" category, this doesn't mean the best or worst player on the team. This is based on their production compared to the player's contract and amount of money they're earning; 3. The win total predictions are the average of 3 predictions from sports betting sites listed on this website.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The new-look Thunder headlined by Chris Paul

Point Guard: Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder

Shooting Guard: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Andre Roberson, Hamidou Diallo

Small Forward: Danilo Gallinari, Terrance Ferguson, Darius Bazley, Abdel Nader, Deonte Burton

Power Forward: Mike Muscala

Center: Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel, Justin Patton

Key Losses: Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Jerami Grant, Patrick Patterson, Markieff Morris

Key Additions: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, Justin Patton

Draft pick(s): Darius Bazley (round 1, pick 23)

Salary Cap: $133,377,251, $-24,237,251 over the salary cap due to $1,736,267 in dead money and $15,746,562 in cap holds

Highest value player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander emerged as one of the best up and coming stars in the NBA. The 2nd team All Rookie player averaged 10.8 ppg, 3.3 apg, and 1.2 steals per game with an effective field goal percentage of 51.2. While those stats don't leap off the page, he affected the game in many more ways as shown by 0.9 value over replacement rating, which ranked 4th among all rookies. Having Gilgeous-Alexander on a rookie contract to learn from and play with Chris Paul is an incredible value for the Thunder.

Worst value player: Chris Paul is still a top 10 point guard in the NBA. But at 34 years old on a supermax contract, as the money paid to Paul goes up, so does his age. Paul makes $38,506,482 this year, $41,358,814 the next, then $44,211,146 the last year of his contract at age 36. Though a bonafide first-ballot hall of famer, this contract is almost impossible to move.

Online win total prediction: 32.5

Offseason Grade: A+

The Russell Westbrook/Paul George era is over. While there are multiple reasons why this team never found substantial success, like their lack of 3-point shooting, lack of a free-flowing offense, and Westbrook’s decline as a shooter, here is the shot that sent OKC into full-rebuild mode.

Social media exploded after Damian Lillard hit a dagger 3 sending the Thunder home and leaving General Manager Sam Presti wondering what to do next. But what happened next likely shocked Presti and the entire NBA. On July 6, Paul George was traded to the Los Angeles Clippers to join Kawhi Leonard for 1000 1st round picks, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Danilo Galinari. On July 11, Russell Westbrook was traded to the Rockets in exchange for more 1st round picks and Chris Paul. These trades not only shook up the Thunder, but the entire NBA.

What’s left in Oklahoma City is an unbelievable amount of future 1st round draft picks, a rising star in Shai Gildeous-Alexander, an underrated Danilo Galinari, and an aged hall of famer. The Thunder also drafted 1st round pick Darius Bazley, another solid young building block. While Bazley chose not to go to college, Bazley has all the intangibles to develop into a productive wing in the NBA.

But the A+ grade I give the Thunder is purely based on the Thunder’s activity through trades. This grade is a bit unstable because this grade could be all for nothing if the Thunder don’t properly use this treasure-trove of draft picks by either drafting properly or trading for talent.

The Thunder claim they have no interest in trading Chris Paul and believe they can make the playoffs with this current roster. While a starting five of Paul, Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Galinari, Mike Muscala (or Nerlens Noel), and Steven Adams is decent, there’s not enough talent or depth to make the playoffs in the loaded west.

But if a team comes calling for Paul (lookout for the Heat), and GM Sam Presti likes the offer, he should take the trade sending the Thunder into a full rebuild with undoubtedly the greatest abundance of draft picks ever assembled.

There’s one problem, Presti’s draft record is garbage. Yes, Presti drafted Kevin Durant, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka, and Steven Adams. But other than that, Reggie Jackson is the next best player Presti drafted and is guilty of wasting 1st round picks on Cameron Payne, Mitch McGary, Josh Huestis, Archie Goodwin, Perry Jones III, Craig Brackins, and many more.

As all basketball fans know, this era of Thunder basketball, starting with KD getting drafted and ending with the Westrbook trade, never produced an NBA title. As OKC moves into the future, these future picks are exactly what a rebuilding team needs, but Presti must utilize them properly to make these trades fully worth it.

Over/Under/Playoff Prediction: Over/No Playoffs

Portland Trail Blazers

Dame waves bye to the Thunder

Point Guard: Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons

Shooting Guard: CJ McCollum, Kent Bazemore, Gary Trent Jr.

Small Forward: Rodney Hood, Mario Hezonja, Nassir Little

Power Forward: Zach Collins, Anthony Tolliver, Skal Labissiere

Center: Hassan Whiteside, Jusuf Nurkic, Pau Gasol

Draft pick(s): Nassir Little (round 1, pick 25)

Key Losses: Al-Farouq Aminu, Seth Curry, Enes Kanter, Meyers Leonard, Evan Turner

Key Additions: Hassan Whiteside, Pau Gasol, Mario Hezonja, Kent Bazemore

Total Salary: $145,010,322, $-35,870,322 over the salary cap, $5,091,109 in dead money and $3,530,993 in cap holds

Highest value player: Last season, Jusuf Nurkic was one of the best centers in the NBA. Nurkic finished with an offensive rating of 117, highest in the NBA among centers, and a 106.5 defensive rating meaning he had a net rating (offensive rating-defensive rating=net rating) of 10.5, 2nd highest among centers. Yet he’s only making $12 million for the next four seasons.

Worst value player: Kent Bazemore is a decent NBA player, but he's only averaged 8.7 ppg, 1.9 apg, and 3.1 rpg for his career. Paying him $19 million just feels off.

Online win total prediction: 46.5

Offseason Grade: B

The Portland Trail Blazers are in a really weird predicament. Though they got swept by the Warriors, Portland made it to the Western Conference Finals after Damian Lillard ended the Thunder and survived an epic 7-game series against the Nuggets. After getting swept in the first round in 2018, making the WCF was a huge step forward and should be considered a sign of things to come. Then the 2019 NBA offseason happened, and the west became even more terrifying.

The Blazers still boast one of the best backcourts in the NBA with Lillard and CJ McCollum. But their depth is lacking. While Portland is high on 2nd year player Anfernee Simons and 1st round pick Nassir Little, they’re both unproven. Mario Hezonja is a decent free agency pick up, but he has mostly disappointed after being the 5th overall draft pick in 2015. Kent Bazemore is better offensively than former Blazer Evan Turner, but not by much and is a worse defender. Rodney Hood had a decent playoffs, but he’s too inconsistent.

With that said, this isn’t new for the Blazers. Lillard and McCollum carried the offensive load for the past 4 seasons, and deservedly so. Both are premier guards and can take the Blazers back to the conference finals. But light of the improvement in the west, this doesn’t seem likely.

Also, the question remains the same for Portland: is their frontcourt good enough to push the Blazers over the edge? Losing Jusuf Nurkic in the playoffs hurt their interior defense, and Blazers fans believe if Nurkic stayed healthy, they could’ve pushed the Warriors. Though he’s not expected to return until February at the earliest. The Blazers traded for former Miami Heat center, Hassan Whiteside. He’s not the same player he was three years ago, but he’s still good on the boards and a capable interior defender who averaged 11.3 rpg, 1.9 bpg, and 12.3 ppg.

On the surface, those stats look decent. But it’s Whiteside’s attitude and inability to score from anything other than a dunk that makes people question about his fit with Portland. Whiteside’s relationship with the Heat’s front office was tumultuous at best given his digs at Pat Riley and problems with Coach Erik Spoelstra and playing time. Spoelstra favored Kelly Olynk because of his offense and played Bam Adebayo to develop the 1st round pick.

Blazers fans will hope the friendship between Lillard, McCollum, and Whiteside will get the best out of Whiteside. A healthy Nurkic for the 2nd half of the season, the addition of Whiteside, and the development of 3rd year player Zach Collins could help Portland’s ceiling.

But the keyword there is “could.”

The western hierarchy got stronger with the additions of PG and Kawhi to the Clippers, Anthony Davis to the Lakers, Mike Conley to the Jazz, and Russell Westbrook to the Rockets. Portland’s best offseason signing is Hassan Whiteside. He doesn’t move the needle enough to put the Blazers above the teams I mentioned.

Even after making the western conference finals, without an improvement from Whiteside and breakthroughs from Simons, Little, or Hezonja, the Blazers will struggle to make it out of the 1st round of the playoffs.

Over/Under/Playoff Projection: Under/6th

Minnesota Timberwolves

The look says it all

Point Guard: Jeff Teague, Shabazz Napier

Shooting Guard: Jarrett Culver, Josh Okogie, Treveon Graham, Jaylen Nowell

Small Forward: Andrew Wiggins, Robert Covington, Jake Layman, Keita Bates-Diop

Power Forward: Jordan Bell, Noah Vonleh, Naz Reid

Center: Karl-Anthony Towns, Gorgui Dieng

Key Losses: Taj Gibson, Tyus Jones, Derrick Rose, Dario Saric

Key Additions: Jordan Bell, Noah Vonleh, Jake Layman, Shabazz Napier

Draft pick(s): Jarrett Culver (round 1, pick 6), Jaylen Nowell (round 2, pick 43)

Total Salary: $161,141,040, $-52,001,040 over the salary cap, $685,340 in dead money, and $33,825,344 in cap holds.

Highest value player: None.

Worst value player: Andrew Wiggins is one of the most disappointing players in recent memory. Yet, the Timberwolves signed him to a max contract before the 2019 season meaning Wiggins will make $27, $29, $31, and $33 million for the next four seasons.

Online win total prediction: 35.5

Offseason grade: C

I can’t think of a more “meh” franchise to write about than the Minnesota Timberwolves. Karl Anthony Towns is one of the most talented offensive players in the NBA and is only 22 years old. But what was once a promising young core of Zach Lavine, Andrew Wiggins, and Towns, is now just Towns. The Timberwolves acquired Jimmy Butler from the Bulls in exchange for Lavine and point guard Kris Dunn two seasons ago leading some Wolves fans believing they could make a run in the west.

But one disgruntled superstar later, and the Wolves are left trying to figure out how to build around KAT. Drafting Jarrett Culver out of Texas Tech is a decent start. He’s one of the best defensive players in the draft and has decent scoring ability. But I worry about Culver’s ceiling as an NBA player. Other than Culver, there is absolutely nobody to get excited about on this roster.

“Uh hello, what about me?”

What about you Andrew Wiggins? The former number 1 overall pick oozed potential coming out of college. Wiggins was considered a sure thing. With his insane athleticism, ability to score at will, and incredible defensive potential considering his size, length, and athleticism, NBA scouts drooled over Wiggins for most of his teenage life.

While his first couple seasons in the NBA were solid, something seemed off. People questioned his drive and fight. But nonetheless, his per game averages were decent. Coming off a season where he averaged 23.6 ppg and shooting 36% from 3, the Timberwolves signed Wiggins to a max contract before the 2018 season.

What followed were his worst seasons averaging 17.9 ppg shooting 42.5% from the field, 33.5% from 3, and an atrocious 45.8% for 2-pointers.

What was once a lethal finisher at the rim, has turned into a timid finisher who lacks any ability to finish through contact. Not only can he not finish, he can’t shoot either. Out of 133 players with at least 500 field goal attempts (FGA) this season, he ranks 132nd in TrueShooting%. Out of 46 players with at least 500 FGA beyond 8 feet, he ranks 45th in FG%.

Wiggins isn’t just a bad offensive player, he’s a negative defensively as well. Granted his defensive box plus minus (DBPM) has slightly improved since multiple cites called Wiggins the least defensive player in the NBA, he’s still put up a negative -1.4 DBPM over the past two seasons.

Factoring in his lack of production and efficiency on both sides of the floor, for players who played over 2500 minutes last season, he ranked 132nd out of 133 players in value over replacement player (VORP) with a -0.6. VORP calculates the value a player brings in relation to someone who normally comes off the bench. Wiggins is literally a negative player on the floor, which isn’t someone any NBA team would want to pay a max contract to, yet alone start.

This leaves KAT as the lone wolf on the team in hopes the franchise does enough for KAT to stay in Minnesota for the long run. But Minnesota’s options are limited. Nobody wants Andrew Wiggins and his max contract. The next tradeable players are Jeff Teague, Robert Covington, and Jordan Bell. But neither of those players are good enough to garner a trade package that moves the needle for Minnesota.

This leaves the Wolves to tank and hope to build from the draft. But even that will be tough considering they must keep KAT happy for him to stay, and a season full of losing won’t make him happy. The Wolves could trade KAT, signaling a clear intention to rebuild. But I doubt this happens leaving the Wolves stuck between Andrew Wiggins and a hard place.

Welcome to NBA purgatory Minnesota.

Over/Under/Playoff Projection: Under/no playoffs

Utah Jazz

Mike Conley (left) and Donovan Mitchell (right) could be lethal together

Point Guard: Mike Conley, Emmanuel Mudiay, Dante Exum, Nigel Williams-Goss

Shooting Guard: Donovan Mitchell, Justin Wright-Foreman, Miye Oni

Small Forward: Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O'Neale, Georges Niang

Power Forward: Joe Ingles, Jeff Green, Jarrell Brantley

Center: Rudy Gobert, Ed Davis, Tony Bradley

Key Loss: Grayson Allen, Alec Burks, Kyle Korver, Raul Neto, Ricky Rubio, Jae Crowder, Derrick Favors, Tyler Cavanaugh

Key Additions: Mike Conley, Emmanuel Mudiay, Bojan Bogdanovic, Ed Davis

Draft pick(s): Jarrell Brantley (round 2, pick 50), Justin Wright-Foreman (round 2, pick 53), Miye Oni (round 2, pick 58)

Total Salary: $132,603,332, $-34,323,399 over the salary cap because of $10,860,067 in cap holds and dead cap

Highest value player: Joe Ingles will make $11.9 million for the 2020 season. Ingles had an offensive win share of 2.5 and defensive win share of 3.6 meaning he his offense contributed 2.5 wins and his defense contributed 3.6 wins. Paying $11.9 million for a player who provides this many wins is good value.

Worst value player: None.

Vegas win total prediction: 54.5

Offseason Grade: A+

Ask just about every NBA fan, and they’ll say the same thing: the Utah Jazz are the dark horse pick to win the west and possibly an NBA title.

The biggest problem the Jazz faced over the past two seasons was the lack of a second scorer to take the load off Donovan Mitchell. Ricky Rubio is a great facilitator, but not nearly a good enough scorer to fulfill this role. While Joe Ingles is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, he’s not a scorer. Jae Crowder didn’t provide that punch, neither did Alec Burks, and the list goes on.

Enter Mike Conley. Widely dubbed as the most underappreciated player in the NBA, Conley was beloved in Memphis. He hit clutch shot after clutch shot and was the model of consistency for a franchise that made seven straight playoff appearances. But as the writing on the wall became clear that the Grizzlies wanted to move in a different direction, trade rumors for Conley swirled.

What resulted was a trade to the Jazz for Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver, and a 2019 1st round pick: a win-win for both sides considering the Grizzlies got a coveted 1st round pick, and the Jazz got one of the best two-way guards in the NBA.

Conley is coming off one of his best seasons averaging 6.4 apg, 2nd highest of his career, and a career-high 21.1 ppg with a 56.9 TS% (true shooting percentage), the 2nd highest TS% of his career. But not only is Conley reliable on the offensive end, he’ll add more defensive value for a Jazz team that ranked 8th in defensive rating last season.

But don’t get it twisted: this is Donovan Mitchell’s team. The former Rookie of the Year got off to a slow start to last season, but he hit his stride and improved in just about every statistical category averaging 23.8 ppg, 4.2 apg, 4.1 rpg, shooting 36% from 3. Though Mitchell is a dynamic scorer, he can’t be the only one. Conley is the perfect backcourt partner to take the load off of Mitchell and provide valuable mentorship for the young guard.

A starting five of Conley, Mitchell, Bojan Bogdonavic, Joe Ingles, and Rudy Gobert means all five players can defend, four can shoot the three, and two can get a bucket when the offense breaks down.

While I’m not picking them to win the west or the title, this is the best Jazz team since Malone and Stockton. I know this isn’t a big market team like the Lakers, Clippers, or Rockets, but don’t be surprised to see them in the western conference final with a legitimate chance at a title.

Over/Under/Playoff Projection: Over/2nd seed

Denver Nuggets

This guy (Nikola Jokic) is the best center in the NBA. No seriously. This guy.

Point Guard: Jamal Murray, Monte Morris, PJ Dozier

Shooting Guard: Gary Harris, Will Barton, Malik Beasley

Small Forward: Torrey Craig, Michael Porter Jr.

Power Forward: Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant, Juan Hernangomez,

Center: Nikola Jokic, Mason Plumlee, Bol Bol, Tyler Zeller

Key Losses: Trey Lyles, Isaiah Thomas

Key Additions: Jerami Grant

Draft pick(s): Michael Porter Jr. (round 1, pick 14), Bol Bol (round 2, pick 44)

Total Salary: $134,820,397, $-25,680,397 over the cap because of $13,598,176 in cap holds.

Highest value player: Gary Harris is coming off of a tough 2019 season where his stats regressed after 2018. Yet he's still a productive shooting guard making a modest $17.8 million entering the 2020 season.

Worst value player: None because this is the last season of 34 year-old Paul Millsap’s $30 million contract.

Online win total prediction: 52.5

Offseason Grade: B

The unknowns on this roster make this prediction very difficult.

Michael Porter Jr. (MPJ) was drafted 14th overall and Bol Bol 44th in the 2nd round. MPJ was dubbed the next Kevin Durant before an injury to his back sidelined him for basically an entire season.

Bol Bol was dubbed the next unicorn big to enter the NBA with his unique ability to score inside and out and dominate the paint defensively before a foot injury sidelined him for basically an entire season. If you don’t see the pattern by now, then take the blindfold off.

Both could have underwhelming NBA careers and fizzle. But both could be the biggest steals of the draft and be exactly what the Nuggets need. While every NBA team could use a unicorn-big who can do it all, MPJ could truly be the missing puzzle piece.

Think about the Nuggets starting 5: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Torrey Craig, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic. As much as I like Torrey Craig, he averaged 5.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, and 1 apg with a TS% of 51.9. Though he has a 0.7 VORP (look at those per game stats compared to Wiggins, then look at both players’ VORP), Craig shouldn’t start.

Replace Craig with MPJ, and the Nuggets get an additional perimeter scorer ready to pick up the slack when Murray, Harris, or both are struggling. At best, MPJ could blossom into a two-way star and the perfect complimentary piece to the best center in the NBA, Nikola Jokic.

The vocal minority of Jokic detractors need to shut up. He’s not a freak athlete. He won’t terrify you defensively. He won’t be cocky and pronounce himself the best center in the NBA. He doesn’t need to because he is.

Nikola Jokic a basketball savant with one the highest basketball IQs in the NBA. He finished 4th in MVP voting and was 1st Team All-NBA. Jokic averaged 20.1 ppg, 10.8 rpg, and 7.3 apg, an insane stat-line for a center. But he was even better in the playoffs averaging 25.1 ppg, 13 rpg, and 8.4 apg.

Last season, the Nuggets had the 6th highest offensive efficiency rating in the NBA, which was completely led by Jokic. He led the NBA with 92.5 touches per game, ahead of 2nd place Russell Westbrook with 91.2 touches per game. Remember, Russell Westbrook is a point guard. Nikola Jokic is a center. Yet, Jokic averaged more touches playing fewer minutes per game. Oh, and Jokic is 23 and only getting better.

Jokic doesn’t do it alone though. He gets his great supporting cast involved to create a fluid and dynamic offense. Jamal Murray and Gary Harris are good perimeter scorers who have steadily progressed each season. While Paul Milsap’s age has shown recently, he’s still a decent scorer and good rebounder.

The signing of Jerami Grant adds more depth to the Nuggets frontcourt. Center Mason Plumlee, guards Monte Morris, Malik Beasley, and Will Barton, along with rookies Bol Bol and MPJ, make up a dependable bench. But as I mentioned before, the emergence of at least one of those rookies will be the key for Denver. If they ball out, the Nuggets will be a top 3 seed in the west. But that’s a big if.

Over/Under/Playoff Projection: Under/5th