2019-2020 NBA Offseason Grades and Review-Southeast Division
- Francis Carlota
- Aug 22, 2019
- 11 min read
Updated: Sep 1, 2019
Welcome to part 3 of my 2019-2020 NBA season preview! If you missed part 2 where I broke down the Central division (Bulls, Cavaliers, Bucks, Pacers, and Pistons), stop, and check it out! My last post of the eastern conference consists of the Southeast division with 3 teams fighting for playoff spots and two teams happy the NBA doesn’t have a relegation system.
*Things to note before reading* 1. Quick salary cap facts: The NBA salary cap is $109.14 million. The max salary before a team must pay the luxury tax is $132.627 million; 2. For my "highest value" or "worst value" category, this doesn't mean the best or worst player on the team. This is based on their production compared to the player's contract and amount of money they're earning; 3. The win total predictions are the average of 3 predictions from sports betting sites listed on this website.
Washington Wizards
Point Guard: Ish Smith, Isaiah Thomas, Tarik Phillip, Phil Booth, John Wall
Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal, CJ Miles, Isaac Bonga
Small Forward: Troy Brown Jr., Jemerrio Jones, Jordan McRae, Admiral Schofield
Power Forwards: Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans
Center: Thomas Bryant, Moritz Wagner, Ian Mahinmi
Key Losses: Jeff Green, Dwight Howard, Bobby Portis, Tomas Satoransky, Trevor Ariza, Jabari Parker
Key Additions: CJ Miles, Mortiz Wagner, Jemarrio Jones, Isaac Bonga, Davis Bertans, Ish Smith
Draft pick(s): Rui Hachimura (round 1, pick 9), Admiral Schofield (round 2, pick 38)
Salary Cap: $131,537,486, $-43,839,716 over the cap, $21,442,230 in cap holds/trade exceptions
Highest value player: Bradley Beal’s rookie max is the only thing I can think of. Beal makes $27.1 mil and $28 mil the next. For a player of his caliber, this is a reasonable and movable contract unlike a certain player.
Worst value player: John Wall. His supermax starts this season where Wall will make $42,782,880 on average for the next four seasons. $42,782,880. Breathe Wizards fans.
Online win total prediction: 27.5
Offseason Grade: D
First off, to all my die hard Wizards fans, I’m sorry. I’m sorry you’ve dealt with season after season of false hope for a backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. I’m sorry you experienced the pains of whatever was left of Dwight Howard. I’m sorry you have not had a competent front office in what seems like forever. I'm sorry John Wall will be making an insane amount of money while likely not playing a game next season. Usually I’d follow something sad with something cliché and positive, like “there’s light at the end of the tunnel.” But the only thing at the end of this tunnel is John Wall’s supermax.
The Ringer presented a great article on the troubles with the supermax and broke down why John Wall’s is hurting the Wizards:
“Take Wall, who signed a four-year supermax extension two years ago. It’s finally kicking in this season, which he’ll miss most of while recovering from an Achilles tear he suffered in February. Washington probably can’t salvage its future by convincing another team to take on Wall. Having such a large contract renders him unmovable, which leads to another unintended consequence of the supermax. Beal, who has already usurped Wall as the Wizards’ centerpiece, is now the franchise’s only appealing trade asset.”
For a team stuck in NBA purgatory in need of pressing the reset button, Wall’s supermax keeps the Wizards from doing so. Ideally, they’d like to build around the draft, maximize a Bradley Beal and John Wall backcourt, and stay contenders in a top heavy East. But this is exactly what the Wizards have been doing for the past 5-6 seasons yielding little success. Due to Washington’s cap inflexibility, the Wizards other option is to punt on this backcourt and trade Beal for assets and wait out Wall’s contract. Only time will tell if a Beal trade occurs. But as of now, Beal will carry the burden of an entire franchise on his shoulders with Wall likely sidelined for the entire season.
While the draft is important for all teams, with Wall's contract, it's paramount for the Wizards to hit on draft picks for the next few years to further this rebuild. Rui Hachimura is a physical beast who is one of the most versatile offensive players in the draft with a silky-smooth mid-range shot. Physically, Hachimura’s body is NBA ready standing 6’8 with a 7’2 wingspan and has above average defensive ability. Though Hachimura's lack of athleticism will get tested in the NBA, it will be interesting to see how Hachimura develops considering he will get substantial playing time due to the Wizards lack of depth from 3-5. He has a great work ethic, and if Hachimura can continue to improve, he could be a good building block the Wizards desperately need.
Over/Under/Playoff Seeding Prediction: Under/No Playoffs
Orlando Magic
Point Guard: D.J. Augustin, Michael Carter-Williams, Markelle Fultz
Shooting Guard: Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross
Small Forward: Jonathan Isaac, Wes Iwundu, Melvin Frazier Jr.
Power Forward: Aaron Gordon, Al-Farouq Aminu, Chuma Okeke
Center: Nikola Vucevic, Mo Bamba, Khem Birch
Key Losses: Jerami Grant
Key Additions: Al Farouq Aminu, Markelle Fultz
Draft pick(s): Chuma Okeke (round 1, pick 16)
Total Salary: $133,601,178, $-51,960,000 over the cap because of $30,619,902 in cap holds and $5,906,666 in dead money
Highest value player: None.
Worst value player: Also none.
Online win total prediction: 40.5
Offseason Grade: C+
For the first time since 2012, the Orlando Magic made the playoffs as a 7 seed and faced off against Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors. What ensued was a DJ Augustin buzzer beating three, a whopping 0 points scored by Kyle Lowry, and a complete overreaction to Toronto’s typical postseason problems. Even after this game 1 upset, nobody thought the Magic would win the series, and the Raptors handed the Magic a gentleman’s sweep in 5 games. But this playoff appearance was a breath of fresh air for a fan base needing some hope.
The Magic made quiet, but key moves this offseason signing Al Faruq Aminu, and re-signing all star center Nikola Vucevic after speculation he would go to Boston. But the biggest move Orlando made was trading for Markelle Fultz before last season’s trade deadline. Fultz is the infamous former number 1 pick by the 76ers who has struggled mightily since entering the NBA altering his shot many times. Recently, a new video surfaced of his “new shot” online. As the article explains, Fultz was diagnosed with Neurogenic Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, which heavily affects the range of motion in his shoulders and neck altering his shot. I’m still a believer in Markelle considering how young he is, but if he never pans out for Orlando, this would not set the Magic back too far in its rebuild.
Mo Bamba, Jonathan Isaac, and Chuma Okeke make up the rest of Orlando’s youth with Bamba and Isaac looking to take great strides this season. Bamba’s 2019 year was limited due to injury, but he still projects as a monster defensively with some offensive upside. Isaac improved in basically every statistical category in his 2nd season and remains an intriguing prospect at 6’10 who can handle and score. Though I worry about his motor, Isaac was a project coming out of Florida State and still has a ton of potential on both sides of the ball, especially if he can develop his outside shot.
In Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross, the Magic have two quality shooting guards to provide perimeter scoring. Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic make up a good frontcourt with the aforementioned Bamba and Aminu right behind them. Overall, this is an above average NBA team who I predict will sneak into the playoffs making back to back appearances. But don’t expect the Magic to take a big leap forward until possibly a couple years from now relying heavily on the draft to find talent.
Over/Under Vegas/playoff seeding projection: Over/8th
Charlotte Hornets
Point Guard: Terry Rozier, Devonte' Graham
Shooting Guard: Nicolas Batum, Dwayne Bacon, Malik Monk
Small Forward: Miles Bridges, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Martin
Power Forward: Marvin Williams, PJ Washington, Jalen McDaniels
Center: Cody Zeller, Willy Hernangomez, Bismack Biyombo
Key Losses: Kemba Walker
Key Additions: Terry Rozier
Draft pick(s): PJ Washington (round 1, pick 12), Cody Martin (round 1, pick 36), Jalen McDaniels (round 1, pick 52)
Total Salary: $127,127,185, $-34,372,689, $16,385,504 in cap holds
Highest value player: None
Worst value player: Nicolas Batum was signed by the Hornets to a 5 year max contract in 2016 after putting up good numbers in Portland. After 2 decent seasons in Charlotte, his production has regressed dramatically. Batum wasn't worth the max contract in 2016, and he is nowhere near worth a max in 2019.
Online win total prediction: 23.5
Offseason grade: F
What the f*** Charlotte. More specifically, what the f*** Michael Jordan. For all of his greatness on the court, he has failed miserably as an NBA owner. Entering the 2019 season, Kemba Walker could qualify for a supermax contract meaning the Hornets could offer Walker over 40 million per season for the next 5 seasons. Walker is one of the best point guards in the NBA, and he has immense value to a small market team like Charlotte. But those small market teams fear paying the luxury tax (though this it’s basically pocket change for NBA owners), and signing Kemba to the supermax would mean paying the luxury tax.
Kemba made it clear he wanted to resign with Charlotte. But amid the countless trade rumors, the Hornets would never commit to Kemba’s future whether it be in Charlotte or not. This uncertainty seemingly cleared up when Kemba wasn’t traded at the trade deadline meaning the logical decision was for the Hornets to offer Kemba the supermax and keep their star player. But Jordan isn’t known for running the Hornets logically and offered Kemba an insultingly low contract (find link) Kemba turned down. A few days later, Kemba signed with the Boston Celtics, and the Hornets let their best player go getting absolutely nothing in return. Why the Hornets didn’t trade Kemba Walker only not to offer him the supermax will never make sense to me.
Then the Hornets overpaid Terry Rozier to be Kemba’s replacement, and there’s a chance he will be Charlotte’s best player. While Malik Monk and Miles Bridges have shown flashes of potential, There is nobody else worth mentioning on this roster. This is a horrible basketball team and likely the worst team in the NBA. Hornets fans should brace yourselves and pray to the basketball gods you get the number 1 pick in the 2020 draft.
Over/Under/Playoff Seeding: Under/no playoffs
Atlanta Hawks
Point Guard: Trae Young, Evan Turner
Shooting Guard: Kevin Huerter, Allen Crabbe, DeAndre' Bembry, Charlie Brown Jr.
Small Forward: De'Andre Hunter, Evan Turner, Cam Reddish, Vince Carter
Power Forward: John Collins, Jabari Parker, Chandler Parsons
Center: Alex Len, Bruno Fernando, Damian Jones
Key Loss: Kent Bazemore
Key Additions: Evan Turner, Chandler Parsons , Jabari Parker
Draft pick(s): DeAndre Hunter (round 1, pick 4), Cam Reddish (round 1, pick 10)
Total Salary: $132,603,332, $-34,323,399 over the salary cap because of $10,860,067 in cap holds and dead cap
Highest value player: None.
Worst value player: None since Chandler Parsons's (Parsons'? I have no idea) max contract ends this year.
Vegas win total prediction: 33.5
Offseason Grade: A-
From possibly the worst team in the NBA in Charlotte, to one of my surprises to make the playoffs in the Atlanta Hawks, this team will be very exciting to watch. They had 2 picks in the top 10 of the NBA draft and chose DeAndre Hunter and Cam Reddish. While I’m high on both, their draft profiles couldn’t be more different. Hunter entered the 2019 draft with arguably the 3rd highest floor as a great 3 point shooter with athleticism, length, and high defensive IQ.
Cam Reddish entered the 2018 NCAA season the projected 3rd pick in the draft. After a disappointing season at Duke, he slid to 10th. But in a recent survey of NBA rookies, Reddish was chosen to have the best career out of this rookie class. Here’s what I said about Reddish in my mock draft where I projected the Hawks would draft him:
“His silky 3-point shot, length and size comparable to Paul George at 6’8 with a 7’wingspan, defensive upside, and solid athleticism were why he was projected so highly. When other top ranked high school players call you the hardest player they’ve ever had to guard, that means something. But his performance at Duke failed to live up to expectations. He averaged a pedestrian 13.5 ppg, 1.9 apg, and 3.7 rpg as the 3rd option at Duke with Zion and RJ and lacked consistency on both sides of the floor. With that said, Atlanta needs wing production badly, and Reddish has the highest ceiling of the remaining players.”
I fully stand by what I said and believe Reddish is the perfect player to add to a young core of Hunter, Kevin Huerter, John Collins, and Trae Young. Speaking of Trae Young, the knocks on him coming out of college never made sense to me. Sure he’s undersized and committed too many turnovers in college. But talent is talent, and Young was a stud at Oklahoma averaging 27.4 ppg and 8.7 apg with an true shooting % of 58.5 and a PER of 28.3. Young got off to a slow start to the 2019 season, but he flipped a switch midway through the season putting him in the Rookie of the Year conversation: “Young has averaged 25.8 PPG, 9.0 APG and 4.4 RPG since the All-Star break and became only the eighth rookie in league history to log at least 35 points and 11 assists in a game.” There’s no reason to believe Young can’t build off of this strong finish and have another great year.
I’m also big fans of Kevin Huerter and John Collins. Huerter is a solid perimeter threat who shot 38.5% from 3 and finished on the All-Rookie 2nd team. John Collins is one of the emerging frontcourt stars in the NBA. He a freak athlete who averaged 19.5 ppg shooting 35% from 3 and grapping 9.8 rpg as well. Don’t forget about the freak athlete part too. Add in a mix of veterans like Evan Turner, Vince Carter, Chandler "Chancun" Parsons, Jabari Parker, and the Hawks have a good blend of youth and experience. While this team is a couple years from contending in the East, don’t be surprised if the Hawks make the playoffs.
Over/Under/Playoff Seeding: Over/7th Seed
Miami Heat
Point Guard: Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn
Shooting Guard: Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Dion Waiters
Small Forward: Justise Winslow, Derrick Jones Jr., KZ Okpala
Power Forward: Kelly Olynyk, James Johnson, Duncan Robinson
Center: Bam Adebayo, Meyers Leonard
Key Losses: Dwyane Wade, Ryan Anderson, Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson, Hasaan Whiteside
Key Additions: Jimmy Butler, Meyers Leonard
Draft pick(s): Tyler Herro (round 1, pick 13), KZ Okpala (round 2, pick 32)
Total Salary: $138,815,518, $-49,160,666, $19,485,148, and $5,664,670 in dead money
Highest value player: None
Worst value player: None
Online win total prediction: 43.5
Offseason Grade: B
The Dwyane Wade era is officially over in Miami. While he spent some weird seasons in Chicago and Cleveland, Dwyane Wade will always and forever be a Miami Heat legend. If this ad with his son Zaire doesn’t make you feel some type of way, you’re not a true basketball fan. Now the Miami Heat enter this odd stage of rebuilding while trying to stay relevant because Pat Riley, President of the Heat, doesn’t believe in tanking. Their decision to trade Josh Richardson for Jimmy Butler signifies this belief.
Butler is a premier two-way player as a dynamic scorer and great defender. He hit countless clutch buckets for the 76ers and provided the scoring needed on a team in need of consistent perimeter scoring. Riley and the Heat hope Butler provides the same for Miami, and I have no doubt he will. But I worry about whether the pieces around him will be enough to make the playoffs.
1st round pick Tyler Herro is legit. Here’s what I said about Herro in my mock draft:
“Tyler Herro (Kentucky, 6’6, 192 lbs) is a walking bucket. But don’t take it from me, watch this interview of the co-SEC Freshman of the Year real quick. As you can see, he’s not lying. His mechanics are a thing of beauty, and he’s not afraid of the big moment.”
Herro proved his supporters right and shot lights out in summer league, and I anticipate seeing Butler start at the 3 with Herro at the 2 sooner rather than later. Goran Dragic is a solid point guard who made the all star team 2 seasons ago, but he regressed heavily last season after suffering a knee injury he needed surgery to repair. I like Bam Adebayo, but Kelly Olynk and Justice Winslow are borderline starters in the NBA. With the Hawks projected to improve, the last spot in the East is a coin flip between the Magic and Heat. I like the Magic’s overall roster more than Miami’s, but it could go either way.
Over/Under Vegas/Playoff Seeding: Under/no playoffs (barely)
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