2019-2020 NBA Offseason Grades and Review-Central Division

Welcome to part 2 of my 2019-2020 NBA season preview! If you missed part 1 where I broke down the Atlantic division (Celtics, 76ers, Nets, Knicks, Raptors), stop, and check it out! Today, the Central division takes center stage with 2 genuine contenders for the Eastern conference crown and 3 teams looking to improve from last season.

*Things to note before reading* 1. Quick salary cap facts: The NBA salary cap is $109.14 million. The max salary before a team must pay the luxury tax is $132.627 million; 2. For my "highest value" or "worst value" category, this doesn't mean the best or worst player on the team. This is based on their production compared to the player's contract and amount of money they're earning; 3. The win total predictions are the average of 3 predictions from sports betting sites listed on this website.

Chicago Bulls

Coby White could be the answer to the Bulls point guard problem.

Point Guard: Kris Dunn, Coby White, Ryan Arcidiacono, Shaquille Harrison

Shooting Guard: Zach LaVine, Tomas Satoransky, Antonio Blakeney, Adam Mokoka

Small Forward: Otto Porter Jr., Chandler Hutchison, Denzel Valentine

Power Forward: Lauri Markkanen, Thaddeus Young, Luke Kornet

Center: Wendell Carter Jr., Cristiano Felicio, Daniel Gafford

Key Losses: Bobby Portis, Robin Lopez

Key Additions: Tomas Satoransky, Thaddeus Young

Draft pick(s): Coby White (round 1, pick 7), Daniel Gafford (round 2, pick 38)

Salary Cap: $113,253,864, -$4,113,864 over the cap

Highest value player: Zach LaVine is one of the most improved players in the NBA. His offensive production increased incredibly last season from the year before. He went from averaging 16.7 ppg to 23.7, having an effective field goal percentage of 44.2% to 52%, and increased his 3-point shooting percentage as well. yet only making $19.5 million is good value for the Bulls.

Worst value player: Like LaVine, Otto Porter Jr. had the best season of his career. But Porter’s career has been head-scratching and inconsistent. A career 11 points, 5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game player should not be making $28.4 million. At least his contract ends this season.

Online win total prediction: 30.5

Offseason Grade: C+

A couple days ago I was with my good friend and massive Bulls fan Charles Casado, and I told him I’m doing my breakdown of the Bulls. Before I could start my next sentence, he cut me off and said, “Here’s my breakdown of the Bulls: they’re crap.” Then he went on about how could the best franchise of the 90s become one of the laughing stocks of the NBA and reminisced about how great Jordan was, which is what every Bulls fan does. For a comprehensive explanation of how this happened to this Bulls, check out this great video by SB Nation.

The glory days of the Bulls are in the past, and this team has been in full rebuild mode since they traded Jimmy Butler to the Timberwolves the summer of 2017 for Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, and the rights to Lauri Markkanen. Those three players along with Coby White and Wendell Carter Jr. make up the young core of the Bulls. On the surface, this core looks decent. Though Zach LaVine is average at best defensively, he’s coming off the best offensive season of his career and was a genuine contender for most improved averaging 23.7 ppg shooting 46.7% from the field and 37% from 3. Lauri Markkanen took great strides in his 2nd NBA season improving his averages in points and rebounds from 15.2 to 18.7 and from 7.5 to 9 rebounds a game. He also shot 36% from 3. Markkanen's game fits the modern NBA perfectly as an offensive unicorn who can score inside and out. Wendell Carter Jr. compliments Markkanen as a gritty more defensive minded big who’s strong on the boards. But the biggest problem for the Bulls is the lack of progression from former 4th overall pick Kris Dunn.

Bulls fans hoped Dunn could take the keys to the Bulls offense and run it efficiently. After a solid 2nd season where he showed solid improvement, last season saw Dunn plateau and even take a step back. A knock on Dunn coming out of college was his age. Considering he is 24 and only in his 3rd season, it looks like Dunn might not have much room to grow causing the Bulls front office to look for a point guard in the draft.

Enter Coby White. In my mock draft, I rated Coby White higher than Darius Garland. While Garland is a better 3 point shooter, White was still a great scorer and good playmaker in college and has a higher defensive potential considering he’s a 6’5 point guard. I also watched a ton of film on both players and saw better defensive effort and positioning from White. If he can improve his playmaking, being 6’5 should help, then White could be ready to take the Bulls offense to the next gear. I also like the Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young signings adding some veteran depth to this young team.

With this said, nothing the Bulls did will make this a playoff team. Defensively, this team will struggle. Last season, they ranked 25th out of 30 in defensive rating, and I don’t expect that ranking to change. They don’t have any quality perimeter defenders and their only interior defender is Wendell Carter. Best case scenario, they contend for a playoff spot, but unless they improve defensively, I don’t see it happening.

Over/Under Win Projection/Playoff Seeding Prediction: Under/No Playoffs

Milwaukee Bucks

I feel you Steph, I understand.

Point Guard: Eric Bledsoe, George Hill

Shooting Guard: Wesley Matthews, Pat Connaughton, Donte DiVincenzo, Sterling Brown

Small Forward: Khris Middleton, Kyle Korver, Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Power Forward: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ersan Ilyasova, D.J. Wilson

Center: Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez

Key Losses: Malcolm Brogdon, Tony Snell

Key Additions: Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez, Kyle Korver

Draft pick(s): None

Total Salary: $127,946,532, $-18,806,532 over the cap

Highest value player: Giannis Antetokounmpo is the MVP and arguably the best player in the NBA on a rookie max deal of $25.8 million.

Worst value player: Khris Middleton is overpaid making $30.6 million, but the Bucks had to keep him considering his ability to spread the floor.

Online win total prediction: 55.5

Offseason Grade: B-

For a 60 win team who finished with the best record in the NBA but lost in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Raptors, there weren’t too many feasible moves available to push them over the top. Many people blamed the MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo for their loss to the Raptors. But that’s a very surface level opinion I hate hearing because while Giannis wasn’t near his best, this was not because of Giannis.

Rather, similar to how the Pistons guarded Michael Jordan with the creation of the “Jordan Rules,” the Raptors employed the “Giannis Rules” creating a 5 man wall to the rim, throwing multiple looks and defenders at Giannis, and forcing other Bucks players to beat them. This was perfectly explained in a video named The Giannis Rules: How the Raptors Out-Schemed the Bucks. Giannis is a premiere playmaker and passer, and the looks he created for his teammates are the same looks he created during the regular season. But as many fans say, the NBA is a make or miss league, and Giannis’s teammates missed more good looks than normal.

The Bucks offense is predicated on Giannis driving to the rim, drawing defenders, and creating outside shots for his teammates. Re-signing Khris Middleton and acquiring Kyle Korver were good decisions for the Bucks. But losing Malcolm Brogdon to the Pacers means one less 3-point shooter and playmaker to help Giannis. This roster basically stayed the same, and while Korver is still a sharpshooter, replacing Korver with Brogdon likely makes the Bucks worse on both sides of the ball. Unless Giannis finds a 3-point shot (help us all if he does), then I struggle seeing a scenario where the Bucks win an NBA title next season.

Over/Under Win Projection/Playoff Seeding Prediction: Under/3rd

Cleveland Cavaliers

One of these is not like the other, or is it?

Point Guard: Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Matthew Dellavedova, Brandon Knight

Shooting Guard: Jordan Clarkson, Kevin Porter Jr.

Small Forward: Cedi Osman, Dylan Windler

Power Forward: Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr., John Henson

Center: Tristan Thompson, Ante Zizic, John Henson

Key Losses: JR Smith (lol)

Key Additions: John Henson

Draft pick(s): Darius Garland (round 1, pick 5), Dylan Windler (round 1, pick 26), Kevin Porter Jr. (round 1, pick 30)

Total Salary: $129,768,629, $-22,074,326 over the cap

Highest value player: None.

Worst value player: Matthew Dellavedova making $9.6 mil and John Henson making $9.7 are bad, but at least they’re off their books this season.

Online win total prediction: 23.5

Offseason grade: C+

The motivation to write about the post-LeBron Cleveland Cavaliers is at a negative 2. But I’m an NBA fan and writer, and they deserve my time and effort. Here are some positives for this franchise: 1. Darius Garland is one of the best 3-point shooters in the draft and if he meets his potential could be the point guard of the future. 2. Dylan Windler is another good 3-point shooter and smart basketball player. 3. Drafting Kevin Porter Jr. at 30 could be one of the steals of the draft. 4. Collin Sexton showed steady improvement throughout last season.

But here are the negatives: 1. The Cavaliers were supposed to have drafted their “point guard of the future” in Collin Sexton. Now they drafted another point guard… Their thinking is pairing Collin Sexton with another playmaker and ball handler will take some of the load off of a young Sexton. Considering Garland’s expected 3-point proficiency, he can also play off the ball and allow Sexton to drive attack the rim at a more efficient rate.

Now correct me if I’m wrong, but only three teams come to mind who have tried using this tactic having multiple playmakers and ball handlers on the floor: the Blazers, the Rockets and the 2018 Lakers. The Blazers backcourt consists of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Lillard is one of the best 3 level scorers in the NBA and received a few MVP votes last season. CJ compliments Dame perfectly as an efficient shooterwho can play on the ball or off. This tactic only worked for the Rockets because they had a perennial MVP candidate and one of the best point guards ever on the same team in James Harden and Chris Paul. For the Lakers, let’s just say it didn’t work as well. Of course they had LeBron, but their other playmakers were Lonzo Ball and Rajon Rondo. Both great playmakers, but nowhere on the offensive level as LeBron James.

Point being, this tactic of multiple playmakers is rarely utilized. And when it is, this only works when your playmakers are two of the best in the NBA. Collin Sexton and Darius Garland have a lot of potential in them. But they are nowhere near Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum or Chris Paul and James Harden. I got into a debate with a guy who loves Garland and compared him to Kyrie or Dame. While I could very well be wrong, those comparisons are the definition of a reach. Kyrie is one of the greatest finishers in the history of the NBA. Garland struggled mightily finishing in college. I also worry about his underdeveloped playmaking, lack of defensive upside, and injury history.

Best case scenario: Garland proves me wrong and shows tremendous potential as a scoring all star. Collin Sexton continues his growth in his 2nd season. Kevin Porter Jr. proves the Cavs made the right choice. Lastly, Kevin Love gets traded for either young talent or trade assets. Worst case scenario: Garland proves me right and disappoints in his first season. Sexton does not improve his efficiency and the sophomore slump affects him. Porter Jr. proves exactly why he fell from being a lottery pick to the 30th pick. The Cavs also can’t trade Kevin Love. Let’s hope it’s the former for Cavs fans.

Over/Under Win Projection/Playoff Seeding Prediction: Under/no playoffs (somebody help this team)

Detroit Pistons

If the Pistons make back to back playoff appearances, it will all depend on these two.

Point Guard: Derrick Rose, Reggie Jackson, Tim Frazier, Jordan Bone

Shooting Guard: Luke Kennard, Langston Galloway, Bruce Brown, Khyri Thomas

Small Forward: Tony Snell, Sekou Doumbouya, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk

Power Forward: Blake Griffin, Markieff Morris, Deividas Sirvydis, Christian Wood

Center: Andre Drummond, Thon Maker

Key Loss: Stanley Johnson

Key Additions: Derrick Rose, Tony Snell, Markieff Morris

Draft pick(s): Sekou Doumbouya (round 1, pick 15), Deividas Sirvydis (round 2, pick 37)

Total Salary: $132,603,332, $-34,323,399 over the salary cap because of $10,860,067 in cap holds and dead cap

Highest value player: Derrick Rose coming off of his best season since 2012, making 7.3 mil is pretty good value.

Worst value player: Reggie Jackson, though again not bad cause it’s up this season.

Online win total prediction: 37.5

Offseason Grade: C+

One of my good friends from high school came to Memphis 8th grade from Detroit, and he was a big Lakers fan. I asked him if he rooted for the Lakers or the Pistons in the 2004 NBA Finals, and he said the Lakers…c’mon man…you’re from Detroit and couldn’t support your hometown team who hasn’t won an NBA title since ’89. But at least the ’04 Pistons pulled off one of the biggest upsets in sports history to bring Detroit an NBA title. Since then though, they’ve struggled to find any consistency as one of the worst franchises in the NBA. SB Nation did a similar analysis of this downfall like they did for the Bulls in this video.

Since 2010, the Pistons have made the playoffs twice and got swept in the 1st round both times. One of those times was last season, which is normally a good sign for a team constantly rebuilding. But for the Pistons, it feels like this was their ceiling. Their centerpieces are Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin meaning the Pistons boast one of the best frontcourts in the NBA. But their best perimeter player is arguably Derrick Rose, and their starting wings are Luke Kennard and Tony Snell. You can find better wings at a gas station. Sekou Doumbouya has a lot of potential as a 3 and D player who could be efficient in transition, like Pascal Siakam. But Doumbouya is a project and likely not ready to contribute immediately, like Pascal Siakam was.

I’m happy to say getting Derrick Rose was a good move for an NBA team. But this is an above average team at best. Last season, three games separated seeds 6-10 in the Eastern Conference. Those teams were the Nets, Magic, Pistons, Hornets, and Heat. The Pistons finished 8th, 2 games ahead of the Hornets and Heat. While I can see how the Pistons could make the playoffs again, I like the Heat, Magic, and surprisingly the Hawks more than the Pistons enough to keep the Pistons out of the playoffs.

Over/Under Win Projection/Playoff Seeding Prediction: Under/No playoffs

Indiana Pacers

Oladipo determines the Pacers ceiling.

Point Guard: Malcolm Brogdon, T.J. McConnell, Aaron Holiday - -

Shooting Guard: Victor Oladipo (projected to return by January), Jeremy Lamb, Justin Holiday, Jakarr Sampson

Small Forward: T.J. Warren, Doug McDermott

Power Forward: Domantas Sabonis, T.J. Leaf, Alize Johnson

Center: Myles Turner, Goga Bitadze

Key Losses: Darren Collison, Bojan Bogdanovic, Tyreke Evans, Wesley Matthews, Corey Joseph, Thaddeus Young, Kyle O’Quinn

Key Additions: Malcolm Brogdon, TJ Warren, TJ McConnell, Jeremy Lamb

Draft pick(s): Goga Bitadze (round 1, pick 18)

Total Salary: $117,031,625, $-7,891,625 over the cap

Highest value player: The Pacers have one of the most well distributed salary caps in the NBA with 2 very high value players and no players of bad value. Myles Turner is one of the best young centers and is making $17.5 mil for the next 4 years. T.J. Warren came off the best season of his career and is only making $11.75 mil with 3 years left on the contract.

Worst value player: None

Online win total prediction: 47.5

Offseason Grade: A-

To me, there are five things every NBA title team must have: 1. A superstar; 2. Perimeter scoring; 3. Efficient all-around big men; 4. Depth; 5. Chemistry. The Pacers have all five.

A Superstar

Victor Oladipo has blossomed into a 2-way superstar after being traded to the Pacers in 2018. Though he suffered a horrible knee injury last season, his production improved dramatically in literally every single statistical category after he changed teams. If Oladipo can come back fully healthy, I expect him to continue this production.

Perimeter Shooting

One of the best signings of the 2019 offseason was Malcolm Brogdon. Snagging a smart, defensive-minded, three-point shooting playmaker from a division rival was a genius move by the Pacers front office. A Brogdon-Oladipo backcourt isn’t the flashiest backcourt duo, but one of the best in the NBA. Add T.J. Warren who shot 42.8% from 3 and averaged 18 ppg, Doug McDermott who shot 40.4% from 3, and center Myles Turner who shot 38.8%. Forward Domantas Sabonis can shoot 3s if needed as well. This means the entire starting lineup can shoot 3s at a high level.

Efficient All-Around Big Men

Speaking of Turner and Sabonis, they are two of the best young bigs in the league. Turner averaged 13.3 ppg, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks while also shooting a high percentage from 3. Sabonis averaged 14.1 ppg, 9.3 rebounds, while shooting 59% from the field. Both make up a frontcourt who can rebound, protect the rim, and score efficiently.

Depth

Losing Bojan Bogdonovic and Darren Collison were big losses. But the Pacers made three other quality signings adding Jeremy Lamb, T.J. Warren, and T.J. McConnell. Lamb is coming off the best statistical season of his career. T.J. Warren is a quality perimeter player who was basically given to the Pacers from the Suns in return for nothing. T.J. McConnell is a solid backup point guard with a high basketball IQ. Add Doug McDermott, Aaron Holiday, Justin Holiday, and first round draft pick Goga Bitadze, the Pacers boast the depth championship teams need.

Chemistry

The past couple seasons have ended in 1st round exits for the Pacers. But think about who they faced. In 2018, the 5th seed Pacers faced the 4th seed Cavaliers led by some guy named LeBron James. Oladipo was great in that series, and the Pacers pushed the Cavs to a game 7 and lost a close one on the road. Last season, the Pacers were in another 4/5 matchup with the Celtics. Though they got swept, Oladipo was still injured and the Celtics finished the season strong. Put in context, these losses are not too bad. This feels similar to the Trail Blazers who suffered early postseason exits making them hungry for success. Last season, the Blazers made it to the Western Conference Finals. If Oladipo can stay healthy, an Eastern Conference Final and a possible NBA Final birth are very possible for Indiana.

Over/Under Win Projection/Playoff Seeding Prediction: Over/2nd